Stress-test and sequence

Optimize · keep more of it

Stress-test and sequence

See which sources fund each year of spending, the recommended account withdrawal order, and how the plan performs under adverse conditions.

Annual funding sources

Spending need$80,000/yr
Guaranteed income$0/yr
Gap from portfolio (after 0% tax)$80,000/yr

Recommended withdrawal order for minimizing lifetime taxes:

  1. Taxable accounts first. Realize gains at capital-gains rates while sheltered balances compound.
  2. Pre-tax (401k/IRA) second. Fill lower brackets each year and convert remaining bracket capacity to Roth.
  3. Roth last. Preserved longest for late-life spending and bequests.

Retiring at 65 with $250,000: low-income years before Social Security begins are favorable Roth-conversion windows. A full bracket optimizer is planned for a later release.

Adverse scenarios

The same plan under three adverse conditions. Success probability and median ending balance are shown for each.

ScenarioSuccessMedian finish
Base plan35%$0
Bad decade (returns −2%)7%$0
High inflation (+2%)6%$0
Live to 10029%$0

Plan tested. Next: derive the balance thresholds that govern future adjustments.

Set up guardrails