About This Simulator

Understanding the "Why" and "How"

Motivation

Traditional retirement calculators often feel too simplistic. They tend to use fixed averages and don't fully embrace the inherent uncertainty and complexity of planning for a future decades away.

This free simulator was built to lean into that uncertainty. Using Monte Carlo simulations, it models thousands of potential futures, acknowledging that market returns and inflation fluctuate year to year. By incorporating variables like taxes, post-retirement income, and standard deviations for market conditions, it aims to provide a more realistic range of possible outcomes for your financial independence journey.

How It Works

The simulator runs thousands of potential economic scenarios based on the inputs you provide. Key elements include:

Monte Carlo Simulation: Randomly generating sequences of market returns and inflation rates based on historical averages and volatility.
Path Projection: Tracking your portfolio value year-by-year, accounting for contributions during your working years and withdrawals (plus taxes and any income) during retirement.
Percentile Analysis: Showing the range of potential outcomes (from pessimistic P10 to optimistic P90) to understand the likelihood of success.
Solvers: Optionally finding the minimum required savings rate or the earliest viable retirement age to meet a target portfolio value by a certain age, even in less favorable (P10) scenarios.

For a more detailed explanation, please see the How It Works page.

Support the Project

If you find this simulator helpful, please consider supporting its development and upkeep. Your contribution helps keep this tool free and available to everyone.

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Disclaimer

This is a simulation tool for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. The results are based on the assumptions and inputs provided and do not guarantee future outcomes. Market conditions can vary significantly. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.