How Much Do You Need to Save? Finding Your Number With Monte Carlo Analysis

How to figure out your required annual savings to retire at your target age, using Monte Carlo analysis instead of a single average-return guess.

• 5 min read• By Retirement Planning Team
Savings Rate
Retirement Planning
Monte Carlo
FIRE

How Much Do You Need to Save? Finding Your Number

"How much should be saved?" is typically the first question in retirement planning. A single average-return projection is a weak basis for answering it: it never shows the below-average decades that determine whether a savings rate was sufficient.

The Question, Precisely

Given your current age, current net worth, planned retirement age, and expected spending in retirement, what's the minimum amount you need to save every year between now and retirement?

Why a Single Number Isn't Enough

A compound-interest projection assumes the market returns exactly its average every year, an outcome without historical precedent. Two savers with the same average return can accumulate materially different balances depending on the sequence of returns.

How the Calculator Answers It

The spend-down step runs thousands of simulated retirements, each with its own randomly generated sequence of market returns and inflation, and searches for the lowest annual savings amount satisfying the requirement through the selected withdrawal method.

What It Takes Into Account

  • Your current age and net worth
  • Your planned retirement age
  • Your expected annual spending in retirement (in today's dollars)
  • Optionally, other retirement income like Social Security or a pension
  • Market return and inflation assumptions, with their year-to-year variability

Try It Yourself

Head to the spend-down step and enter the plan inputs. All computation runs in the browser; the plan is stored only on the device.

Put this into practice
Find your number in the spend-down step